Ahwahnee, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

416
FXUS66 KHNX 120611
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1111 PM PDT Sat Jul 11 2026


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.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Slow but steady warmup this week, with widespread Moderate
Heat Risk by Tuesday with isolated areas of Major Heat Risk.

2. Increased chance for Sierra Nevada thunderstorms late this
weekend into next week with monsoonal moisture pushing into our
region.

3. Practice safety around lakes, rivers, and streams, as water
is still running cold.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Current satellite imagery shows a layer of high cirrus clouds
spread over much of Central California and into Northern
California, indicating that moisture is advecting at the high
levels of the atmosphere right now while the surface relative
humidities remain fairly dry. This is expected to change as more
moisture is pulled up from the south through the next few days.
Sunday will see a slight chance (5-10%) for thunderstorms over
the Sierra Nevada crest, and mainly at the highest elevations.
These chances then jump up to 15-30% by Monday as the amount of
moisture increases throughout the region. Similar chances are
seen on Tuesday before they move slightly east and decrease into
the 10-20% range on Wednesday. Then each afternoon will see that
range of chances on the Sierra Nevada through the rest of the
week into next weekend.

As a result of all this additional moisture and cloud cover, low
temperatures at night are expected to rise from the low to mid
60`s into the low 70`s in the rural areas and the mid 70`s in
the urban areas, such as Fresno and Bakersfield. This along with
the highs in the mid 100`s will lead to Moderate Heat Risk
throughout the Valley and the Mojave Desert, as well as pockets
of Major Heat Risk that are mainly in the southeastern Valley
and the southern Tehachapi Range in Kern County. The hottest
days are expected to be from Tuesday through Thursday as the
Heat Risk has the highest chance of being Major, at 40-60% in
those regions mentioned above. This level of Heat Risk affects
most of the population, especially if there is no access to
adequate cooling at night.

Looking to the long term forecast, the Climate Prediction
Center has much of California in the leaning above (40-50%
chance) normal category for temperatures in both the 6 to 10 and
8 to 14 day outlooks, as well as a slight risk for hazardous
temps from the 19th through the 25th of July, which are both
indications of the continuation of these above normal
temperatures that have been seen throughout this month.

&&


.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected across the area for the next 24 hours.

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.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.


&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

EW

weather.gov/hanford